Daily Musing 4/30/2014: Knives & Rain

Recap:

Yesterday was better than Monday, but not by much. I placed in the money with one lineup and finished out of the money with the other. One thing I am learning about the daily game is to pay for pitching and mix and match with your hitters. I scratched a few of my hitters yesterday because of the weather. I did not use Daniel Murphy and David Wright of the Mets because of the chance of Rain. They were able to play the game in Philadelphia, and Murphy had a big game going 3-5 with 1 RBI and 1 Run. Wright on the other hand went 0-5. Not using either ended up being a wash. I used Pedroia and Arenado and their stats canceled out Murphy and Wright's performance.

What killed me yesterday was Matt Cain being scratched from his start. He cut himself with a knife. Didn't anyone tell him not to play with knives on his start day?? I had to substitute him at the last minute and made the wrong gut call. I went with Kluber for the Indians against the Angles, and he did not do well. He only lasted 4.1 innings giving up 4 runs and striking out 5. This killed my second lineup and is the reason I finished outside of the money. Every one of my batters I selected yesterday had at least 2 points. Matt Holliday was the lone 2 point performer only having 1 walk. I will enter two different lineups again today in two different 50/50 tournaments. Hopefully the rain stays away and pitchers stay out of their kitchens (the rain has not stayed away, canceling 4 games on the east coast).

I made a discovery today while I was doing research. I have 10 dollars in my Fan Duel account. I will be playing in 7 50/50 daily leagues on their site today. They only use one pitcher and outs count against hitters.

Pitching:

Shelby Miller: The Brewers collectively are batting .211 against him. He also dominated them in his last start, when he pitched against them in Milwaukee striking out 7. He has 1.61 career ERA at the new Busch stadium. I used Shelby Miller a bunch today in the daily leagues. As I sit here and type this, he has given up 3 runs in the first three innings. Things are not looking too great for him. Hopefully he settles down, and pitches well the rest of the outing.

Matt Scherzer: Not too much explanation here. If you have Scherzer you are starting him in yearly leagues. I am going to start him in a daily league with some trepidation. He is super expensive on draft kings, but I am paring him with a cheap pitcher who I think will do well (Eovaldi). The worry I have is his record at US Cellular. In the last 3 years he has an ERA of 4.28 at the Cell. He did strikeout 10 White Sox the last time he faced them this year, and I am banking on this trend and not the former. As I sit here and watch the game he is looking great. He has struck out 4 in 3.1, and the Tigers have a 4-0 lead.

Nate Eovaldi: I really like Nate Eovaldi. He has been a steal in my NL only league. He is still available in many leagues. I think I am going to pick him up in the one mixed league I am struggling in. The Braves are batting .230 against him in his career and he has 33 K against them. The Braves strikeout a ton and he is a good strikeout pitcher. Hopefully the Braves bats do not wake up against him tonight.

Jordan Zimmermann: Zimmermann is strikeout pitcher and he is pitching against the Astros. His stats are skewed this year because of his second start of the year. He only lasted 1.2 innings and allowed 5 runs. He has gone at least 6 innings since this start. He has given up no more than 3 runs in each start since this outing. He has struck out 28 batters in 26 innings this year. I look for him to go deep into the game and strikeout a plethora, I really like the work plethora, of Astros batters. One word of caution, I guess it is just a word to me since not sure who is reading this, in two starts at Minute Maid park he has an ERA of 4.91.

I am using Yordano Ventura tonight in one lineup. I just really like Ventura and think the Blue Jays batters will struggle against him. The only caution I have in using him is if his control is off. If he doesn't have command it could be a short outing. This being said, even if his control is off, he should still strikeout his fair share of Blue Jays.

Hitting:

C: Kurt Suzuki had done well against Zach Greinke in his career. He is 5/16 against him, and over his last 7 games played he is batting 375/.417/.375. He has little to no extra base power, but he gets on base. Greinke has also struggled at Target Field, in 2 starts he has an ERA of 5.14. Most of the Twins hitters when he pitched these starts have moved on, but for some reason I look for Minnesota to light up Greinke tonight. Which means he will probably pitch a no-hitter. Suzuki is really expensive to own on draftkings, but he is more reasonable on fanduel. Miguel Montero has been on a tear recently. He also is 5/6 against Jordan Lyles. Very small sample size, but since he is batting .308 over his last 7 and has an OBP of .381 I will give him a try. If he is still available in yearly leagues I would pick him up. I am guessing he is not available in most leagues. I am going to use Salvador Perez tonight in a ton of leagues. He has not batted against Drew Hutchinson, but over his last seven games he is batting .381/.409/.762. You cannot ignore a hot streak I just hope he does not cool off tonight.

1B: Matt Adams has been really good in a small sample size against Matt Garza. He is 5/6 with 1 double. You can add a homer to this total after today. He cranked one while I was getting ready to write this. I have him in quite a few lineups, and in one of my yearly leagues. His power has not been present this season yet, but I'll take the average he has provided this season. I have Matt Garza in one of my yearly leagues and sat him today. I am glad I did, before today Garza has struggled in Bush with a 6.28 ERA. This will go up after his performance today, he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. Joey Votto is another good start. He is batting .389 against Edwin Jackson with 2 HR and 2 doubles.

2B: Scooter Gennett has a good record against Shelby Miller going 5/11. He is batting .227 over his last 7, but he is batting third today for Brewers, who are the walking wounded. I started him in a few lineups and he has not let me down so far. Anthony Rendon has been solid in his last seven games batting .296. He also has killed lefties this year batting .500, and over his short career he is batting .294.

3B: Miguel Cabrera is my man at 3B today. He has started to heat up and is batting .381 over his past 7 games. He also likes hitting at US Cellular batting 302/.396/.583. Who am I kidding, Cabrera likes batting in any ballpark. I was going to use David Wright today based on his record against Kyle Kendrick, but the game is postponed. One thing to note on Fanduel, once you enter a lineup and the earliest game has started you cannot go back and edit your lineup. I have Wright and Longoria in a couple of lineups, and it is going to be hard to place in the money. You can change on Draftkings, so I changed Wright to Nolen Arenado who has been hot recently batting .360/.407/.440 over his last 7.

SS: Jhonny Peralta has starting to heat up, over the past 7 he is batting .333. He also has been a Matt Garza killer batting .464 in 28 AB with 2 doubles and 1 hr. He only has 1 walk today as I type this. He did not really pan out. One walk is still points and helps some. I am going to keep ridding the Alcides Escobar train. He is 3/3 against Drew Hutchinson. He did not get a hit last night, but did get a walk, a SB and a run scored.

OF: John Jay is another Garza killer he was 7/12 with 1 double and 1 HR coming into today, and that only improved. He was only batting .105 over his past 7, and that average will go WAY up. I rolled the dice in a couple of lineups. He has 1 single, 2 doubles, and 1 RBI and 2 runs scored as I am writing this. I am using Aoki again tonight. He has been rock solid at Kauffman, and over his last 7 batting he is .321. I am also rolling the dice with Jarrod Dyson in a few lineups. He is batting .500 over his past seven with 5 SB's. Michael Bourne is also a play I like tonight. He is batting .412 against C.J. Wilson with 2 doubles and 1 Triple in 17 at bats. He also is batting a solid .333 over his past 7. I also like Jason Werth tonight, he has been on fire over the past 7 games batting .393/.414/.571. He has been solid against lefties this year batting .333/.400/.444. Nick Swisher is another cheap option in the daily game for 1B or the OF. He is batting .344 in 32 AB's against C.J Wilson with 4 doubles, 1 Triple, and 1 HR. I am also jumping on the Billy Hamilton train in a few lineups tonight. He was 2/4 against Jackson when he faced him in at Wrigley, and if he can get on he will steal bases. He is actually starting to get on base. Over the past 7 games he is batting .333/.364/.524.

You know this is really a ton of work to get this done J, but it is fun to do.

Daily Musing 4/29/2014: WOW! That Hurt

Recap from last night:

Well my daily fantasy baseball career is coming to a crashing halt before it really gets started. I have spent, to date, 30 dollars, and I am down to 2.20 in my draft kings account. I put an extra 15 in my account yesterday and did not place in the money, in any contest. My idea of the Angles being tired may have been a day early. They pounded Masterson last night, and Madison Baumgartner was not Madison Baumgartner. My offense was also putrid. I had three guys with zero points, and you cannot win in the daily leagues having players with zeroes on your roster. The rest of my team was acceptable, but I did not have any breakout performers. I should have trusted some of those White Sox hitters. They crushed Odorizzi. I will play in two 50/50 leagues today and the draft kings free-roll and hope that I can build up my bankroll. If not I will keep writing my blog and play the free game every day until I can justify putting more money in the account.

Pitchers:

I am just going to list the guys who I like instead of listing every starter like I did yesterday. There were only 7 games yesterday so it made some since to list them all. You be the judge if it made some since ok?

Simon for the Reds: Same things apply today as they did yesterday. Read the previous blog post. I will use him and hope he continues his hot streak, and the Cubs keep being the Cubs.

Cain for the Giants: I have Cain in two of my Fantasy leagues. My NL only and one of my mixed leagues. He did not do well his last time out in Colorado, but it was in COLORADO, this alone should be reason enough as to why he did not perform well. He is starting against the Padres, even though they have scored runs in their last two games, I look for that to come to a crashing halt tonight. Cain is really good against the Padres. In the past three years the current Padres hitters are batting .211 against him and he has an ERA of 2.11. In 55 innings he has 58 strikeouts. I love him tonight in my fantasy leagues and in the daily games. I hope he comes through for me, unlike his teammate…

Gonzales for the Nationals: He is facing the Astros and he strikes out batters, the Astros strikeout out a ton. Any questions? Thought not. He has not pitched a ton against current Astros hitters, which is even more of an advantage to him. The experts always tote this, so I guess I will too. The only hesitation I have is he had some shoulder soreness at the end of his last start. It is probably nothing since he is pitching tonight, but something to keep an eye on and possibly not start in the daily game. I am going with him in one of my lineups, so based on last night, use him at your own risk J.

Jose Fernandez for the Marlins. Do I need to spell anything out on this one? I didn't think so. He is pricey for the daily game, but I am starting him in one of my lineups and going with some value hitters.

Hitters:

C: Dioner Navarro has been solid all year, and he mashes lefties to the tune of a .284 average of the last three years, with 9 home runs. Even though Jason Vargas of the Royals has been great all year I look for Navarro to have a solid game tonight. In 9 AB's against Vargas, Navarro has 4 hits and one walk. A.J. Pierzynski is another good play tonight. He is batting 9/21 against Eric Bedard in his career with 2 HR. I will take those numbers. For those who have him in yearly leagues, I wish I did for the night. Another good play tonight would be Carlos Santana of the Indians. He is slumping currently, but had a big night last night. He is strong against Weaver of the Angles, batting .500 in 14 AB's and 2 HR. I would say Suzuki of the Twins would be good plays as well, but we will have to wait for tomorrow since the Dodgers vs Twins game has been postponed.

1B: Hosmer, he is the only guy I am playing tonight at 1B in the daily game. I also own him in two leagues, and right now am extremely happy I own him. I know he is not hitting for power, but I'll take his average, doubles and RBI. He has only 1 AB against McGowan tonight, but is batting .346 over the last 7 games and is mashing the ball. I watch a ton of Royals baseball since I live in KC, and since the Cubs stink. I would definitely start him against a struggling pitcher in McGowan.

2B: I love me some Daniel Murphy of the Mets. In 34 AB against Hamels he has 12 hits for a .343 batting average. He also likes batting at Citizen Bank Ballpark, over the past three years he is batting .300 in 94 AB's. I am sure there are other plays out there, but this is who I am going with tonight. As long as the weather holds in Philadelphia.

3B: David Wright likes batting against Cole Hamels as well. He is batting .349 with 5 HR in 63 AB's. Love that sample size. He also murders the ball at Citizen Bank, batting .383.0

I need Pablo Sandoval to get going. I have him in 1 league where I am struggling in almost every category. He could get hot tonight. He is batting 12 for 24, a cool .500 (I can even do the math on that one) with 1K against Eric Stults.

SS: I really don't like anyone at the SS position tonight. I am playing Alcides Escobar and Yunel Escobar tonight. Alcides has been on fire over the past two weeks. A little cooler over the past 7 games, batting just .273. He is batting .343 at Kauffman stadium this year. Hopefully he heats back up with some home cooking.

Yunel kills John Lackey, in 15 AB's he has 8 hits for a .533 average with 2 doubles and 2 K's. He is batting just .124 over the past 7 days so this one is a roll of the dice, but I will take my chances with him tonight. I just didn't find any other plays I like for the value.

OF: Melky Cabrera is batting .300 against Vargas in 10 AB's with 1 HR. For the year he is batting .310 against left handers with 2 HR's. Melky also likes batting at his former home stadium with an average of .288. Dexter Fowler is 3/6 against Gio Gonzales, and is also batting .298 against all lefties over the past three years. Fowler had a rough patch earlier this year and is a streaky player, but I'll take my chances tonight. He is available in one of my yearly leagues, and I am thinking about picking him up to help my struggling OF. Matt Joyce has been a steady play all year in the daily game. He is mashing righties, and is 6/18 against Lackey with 2HR. As an aside he is only batting .214 at Fenway the past three years. Matt Holliday has been hot recently batting .407/.469/.630 over the past 7 days. He is also 8/20 against David Loshe with 1 2B and 1 HR. Nick Markakis is been swinging a hot bat recently batting .375/.464/.417 over the past 7 days. He is 2 for 2 against Charlie Morton, for what that is worth. Morton has struggled in his starts this year, look for Markakis hot streak to continue. Norichika Aoki for Royals is my last OF I am playing tonight. He has struggled on the road this year but is batting .441 at Kauffman. Over the last 7 days he is batting .296 with an OBP of 345. Look for some slap doubles tonight against right hander Dustin McGowan.

Source Info:

I should have listed this yesterday but all of my data and stats are being pulled from ESPN player profile websites. I will include links to each player page in each blog after this.

 

Introduction and Daily Musing 4/28/2014

Again I am going to try to kick off a blog and hope I stick to it. No guarantees I will. This time I will at least be writing about something I have become passionate about, Fantasy Sports. Not that I am not passionate about writing book and movie reviews, but I am not good about keeping spoilers a secret and writing reviews. I will give this a go, giving my thoughts on who to start and sit for fantasy baseball and who I will pick and play for Daily Fantasy Baseball. I will also give my results on the previous day, good or bad.

I have been playing daily fantasy baseball over the past week and plan on keeping playing one dollar leagues until I cannot justify dumping money into the fruitless enterprise. I am also currently playing in five fantasy baseball leagues. Two standard mixed AL and NL fantasy leagues with categories, one head to head league, which my nine year old son drafted and I am helping manage, and one NL and AL only fantasy league. I am not a fantasy genius nor a professional, but I do love playing and hope by doing this can help me do better in my leagues and maybe (big MAYBE) help others.

Today is a light day in the MLB only seven games. Which should make my post short today, guess will see how long and these puppies will get when we get a full slate of 15 games tomorrow.

Starting Pitchers:

The Obvious:

Yu Darvish and Sunny Grey, if you have them start themJ. They are expensive in the daily game and I am staying away from both of them to be able to pay for better hitters. They are both going to pile up the strikeouts and go deep into the ballgame.

Second Tier:

Samardzija, if you have him in a fantasy league I would start him, in fact I have him in 3 of my 5 leagues and am starting him in all of them. He has been great all year, even if his strikeouts have gone down. The only hesitation I have in using him in the Daily leagues, or starting him is his record at Great American Ballpark. He does not seem to seem to pitch well in Cincinnati. From 2011-2013 in 28.1 innings, some of his appearances where out of the bullpen when he started his career, he has a 4.76 ERA and has given up 7 home runs. He has 29 K's in his 28.1 innings pitched which means he is good enough to start in my yearlong leagues, but I'm staying away from him in the daily Game

Simon: I would love to start Simon in the daily game tonight. He is facing the Cubs who couldn't hit him on April 18^th in Chicago. He pitched 6 innings, gave up one run on 4 hits. He has pitched at least innings in each of his starts this year, and until he shows some regression I would use him in favorable matchups, and my beloved Cubs are the Cubs. For some reason Draft-Kings does not have any 50-50 daily games where I can start him or he would be one of my starters.

Gallardo: He has been nails this season, almost wished I would have picked him and drafted him in a few leagues. I didn't because I did not know if it would last and it still may not. He has gone at least 6 innings in each start and not given up more than 2 runs. My only hesitation is in his performance in Busch II, since 2011 in 6 starts and 32.1 innings he has a 6.12 ERA and given up 4 long balls, not horrible but the amount of runs given up is. If I owned him in a fantasy league I would start him and hope he is having a bounce back season, but I would stay away in the daily game.

Wacha: Has been great, even if his last start was a little shaky. He only went 4 inning, but had 10 K's and gave up 2 ER. I will take those numbers in fantasy. I am not playing him because he is too expensive in the daily game. If you have him in the standard leagues he is a start.

Bumgarner: He is Bumgarner, he has been good all year, even in Colorado. He gave up 4 ER's in 6 innings but still stuck out 10. He is a must start in standard leagues, and I will be using him tonight in Daily leagues since he is facing he Padres. Who don't have a great offensive team collectively and are batting .242 against him. He has an ERA of 3.62 against them since 2011, but I will roll the dice.

Masterson: This is my other starting pitcher for my daily leagues. He has been solid in his two outings going at least 6 innings and giving up 2 ER in each start. My thought with going with him is that he is a cheaper option than Gallardo and Wacha and he is facing an Angels coming back from a long road trip and a late night East Coast game. It may be superficial but I will take my chances that some of the older Angles hitters will be tired and not have their best games tonight. He really is my third option tonight, I would much rather start Simon if I could.

Ross and Skaggs: Ross and Skaggs are interesting picks, since I am going with Masterson and Bumgarner I am not taking them. If you have them in standard leagues you would pitch them. I am thinking because of the travel for the Angels Skaggs is not a good option and I think Ross will struggle to get the W against Bumgarner with little to no run support.

Third Tier:

Odorizzi, Rienzo, Morales, and Miley. Not sure why anyone would start them in the daily game. Morales would be a maybe because he has looked good in his last few starts, but only in standard deep leagues and NL only leagues. Miley has been Arizona's best pitcher, and still has a 4.5 ERA for the year. If you have him in a mixed or standard league I am not sure I would start him against a red hot Colorado team. They have been hitting even away from Coors. Look at the series against the Dodgers from the weekend. Odorizzi and Rienzo are not really worth mentioning. If I still owned Odorizzi in a standard league I would sit him until he shows some signs of progress. Rienzo I am not sure if anyone owns him except in extremely deep AL only leagues, and if you are in one of those I doubt your reading my blog.

 

Hitters:

Ok just a few hitters. Not sure how I am going to do this since I spent so much time on pitching. I am starting Brandon Moss at 1^st in my daily leagues. He has been good against Darvish with an average of .333 in 18 at bats and 4 long balls. I also like anyone from Tampa Bay who has been hot recently. Zobrist, Joyce, and Longoria are three that I am using in the daily game because of the poor pitching matchup. I thought about using some White Sox hitters, but they scare me with their inconsistences for the daily game. Chris Denorfia is solid against Bumgarner batting .341 in 44 at bats, not any home runs, but for a cheap option in the daily game I will give him a try. I am using Charlie Blackmon tonight and Mike Trout in another lineup. Will see how they do. It looks like weather could be an issue in Chicago and Cincinnati.